Why Oil Is Hovering Around $60/Bbl — and the Quiet but Critical Role of Russian Crude

Oil prices continue gravitating back toward the $60-per-barrel range, even when short-term volatility moves the market higher or lower. While this level appears stable, the reasons behind it are more structural than they may seem. In my work involving upstream oil and gas development, mineral economics, and energy regulation, I’ve seen how long-term fundamentals—rather than daily price swings—shape where the market ultimately settles. Today’s pricing reflects strong global supply, softening demand, and continued geopolitical uncertainty, particularly involving Russian crude.

Non-OPEC+ producers such as the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana continue increasing output, contributing to a well-supplied global market. Demand, by contrast, has cooled due to slower economic growth in China, persistent stagnation in Europe, and broader weakening across major consuming regions. These conditions limit upward price momentum while also preventing a meaningful decline below $60. These supply-demand dynamics align with the economic models and regulatory analyses I’ve taught for years in the University of Colorado Denver’s Global Energy Management Program and in international oil and gas courses.

Russia remains central to this balance. Despite sanctions, the country continues exporting significant volumes of crude and refined products—approximately 7.4 million barrels per day in October, according to the International Energy Agency. While modestly lower than the previous month, these flows remain substantial enough to avoid a major global supply disruption. In my decades of advisory, legal, and expert-witness work across upstream operations and mineral-valuation matters, I’ve frequently seen how producers under regulatory or geopolitical pressure find pathways to maintain export volumes through alternative buyers, shipping routes, or pricing strategies.

Those strategies often include discounted barrels. Urals crude continues selling below Brent, with discounts varying widely by port, transaction, and destination. These discounted barrels help moderate global prices, even as Russia’s export revenues fall—declining to an estimated $13.1 billion in October. I’ve published and presented extensively on similar valuation and pricing distortions throughout my career, including work involving pipeline permitting, mineral valuation, oil and gas lease analysis, and regulatory response frameworks.

Russia’s roughly six to seven percent share of global supply leaves the market highly sensitive to any shift in its export levels. If exports remain steady, prices will likely hold in the $60 to $65 range. A moderate reduction could push prices toward the mid-$60s or low-$70s, while more significant disruptions—whether driven by logistics, sanctions enforcement, or geopolitical escalation—could move prices into the $70 to $80 range. These types of sensitivity assessments mirror the scenario analysis and expert evaluations I routinely prepare for legal teams, energy companies, and regulatory stakeholders.

Overall, today’s environment can be described as balanced but vulnerable. Strong supply and weakened demand anchor prices around $60, while geopolitical risk—particularly involving Russia—acts as a counterweight that limits further downside. As I’ve observed throughout more than forty years of work across natural resources, mineral economics, teaching, and energy-industry arbitration, these equilibria can hold for some time but remain subject to rapid change.

About the Author

Ralph A. Cantafio, Esq. is an attorney, mediator, arbitrator, and expert witness with more than forty years of experience in oil and gas, natural resources, mineral economics, and energy regulation. He holds graduate degrees in Global Energy Management and Mineral Economics, serves on the AAA–ICDR roster of arbitrators and mediators, and teaches energy law and regulatory policy in the University of Colorado Denver’s Global Energy Management Program. His practice focuses on mediation, arbitration, and expert testimony involving upstream oil and gas development, mineral valuation, regulatory matters, and natural-resource disputes. He has also taught oil and gas law, contracting, land management, and petroleum economics to industry professionals across the U.S., Canada, China, and Nigeria.

Contact Ralph

If you need analysis related to global oil markets, Russian crude impacts, mineral valuation, upstream operations, regulatory issues, mediation, arbitration, or expert witness support, I welcome inquiries. Contact me directly to discuss your matter or request an expert evaluation.